Category Archives: Africa

Stalemate in Egypt: Expect Years of Insurgency vs. Autocracy

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 1, No. 6, October 2013.

Map of Egypt.

Map of Egypt. Source: University of Texas.

Anders Corr, Ph.D.
Publisher of the Journal of Political Risk

Egypt is on the verge of being engulfed by a long-term insurgency. After a brief period of democratization following the Arab Spring, the world’s most populous Arab country has returned to a popular military dictatorship. General Sisi will likely lead the country, either as power behind the President, or as President himself. The primary difference between the Egypt of Sisi and the Egypt of the pre-Arab-Spring Mubarak will be a function of the overthrow of the democratic Islamism of President Morsi. A new outraged minority with pro-democracy and pro-Islamist beliefs fielded popular protests, and was repressed with lethal force. A significant minority of that minority will now divert their energy towards terrorism and organized insurgency.

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Political Risk in The Gambia: Crime, Terrorism, Monetary Instability, Small Business Flight, and Protectionism

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 1, No. 4, August 2013.

Figure 1 is a bar graph titled "Comparison of Gambia and Sierra Leone on the Ease of Doing Business in 2013" showing one upward trend in red and a downward trend in blue.

Figure 1: Comparison of Gambia and Sierra Leone on the Ease of Doing Business in 2013. Data Source: World Bank. [1]

Anders Corr, Ph.D.
Publisher

Naheed Vadsaria
Field Researcher

Political risk in the tiny West African state of “The Gambia” is high.  Named after the small river around which its borders fluctuate, the country hosts a dictatorship established in a 1994 coup. The country also hosts Hizbollah operatives who conduct international financial transactions, and is one of the top African cocaine transshipment points to Europe. Local businesses are considering fleeing to Sierra Leone to escape a raft of seemingly arbitrary and protectionist laws promulgated by the President for potentially personal reasons.

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Political Risk to the Mining Industry in Tanzania

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Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2013.
Two line graphs plotted on the same set of axes showing upward trends, titled "Tanzania Mining Growth 1998-2012"

Data Source: African Economic Outlook, National Accounts of Tanzania Mainland.

Ilan Cooper 

Nathan Stevens

Long considered an anchor of East African stability, Tanzania has recently made headlines for aggressive expansion of its mining and extractive industries. In what might be considered growing pains, economic prosperity has strained government and civilian relations, and is increasingly testing the governance skills of Tanzania’s Ministries. Adverse investment laws, widening religious conflict, and proliferation of small arms and light weapons, however, tarnish Tanzania’s image as a peaceful and prosperous republic. Continue reading →