Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 7, No. 6, June 2018
By Demetrius Cox
A PLA Air Force (PLAAF) military transport plane (IL-76) in Davao City on 8 June 2018. Source: Philippine Plane Spotters Group (PPSG).
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
On June 9, 2018 the Philippine Star published an article titled “More than 3 million Chinese allowed entry into Philippines since 2016 — Immigration data”.
In what may become one of the most remarkable subversions in recent history, the article describes how the immigration floodgates have been thrown open by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. With a current national population of 103 million, Duterte has allowed a 3% direct population increase (3+ million) of Chinese immigrants to the Republic of the Philippines in less than three years, which is enough to keep most demographers up at night. And there is no end in sight.
In Communist China’s long game, this is a very important development. The PRC is effectively colonizing a democratic neighbor and treaty ally of their chief rival, the United States, while driving a strategic wedge deep into the heart of the Western Pacific – without firing a single shot.
China’s illegal construction and militarization of five man-made island fortresses in the South China Sea has elicited outrage. But the PRC is laughing at the world. As reports of a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) IL-76 landing at Davao City on June 8 suggests, China is in the process of buying and colonizing a 7,000 island unsinkable aircraft carrier, while creating a brilliant encirclement and containment strategy to directly threaten every regional neighbor and rival.
Apparently President Duterte never made a study of Communist China’s invasion of Tibet (1950), or PRC forays into Socialist infiltration of Malaysia (Malayan Emergencies, 1948-1960; 1968-1989) and Indonesia (PKI, 1914-1966), where China attempted to directly subvert two key southeast Asian nations by mass immigration, while agitating, fomenting, and arming communist militias there.
There is no sunny future here for the Philippines’ weak democracy – and China will see to it. Short of an Indonesian-style purge, those Chinese immigrants are in the Philippines to stay, and are being joined by thousands more each day. In rapid succession, we are likely to see at least a political resurgence of the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and other Socialist advocacy groups – including the Catholic Church – which has a history of supporting the CPP. Even though Duterte allegedly hates the CPP with a passion, China knows he won’t be around to protest later – or even now – to provide a modicum of Counterintelligence pushback against Chinese Intelligence Services currently operating in the completely unrestrained and target-rich environment created by the president himself. Given the unfortunate history of corruption and poverty in the Philippines, Duterte’s eagerness to court Chinese investment and tourism will likely see greed triumph over freedom and democracy. This could be met with mass Filipino unrest, once the populace more fully understands what their crooked leaders have done to them, but even that is in doubt if China succeeds in making a few more Filipinos “rich”.
Hello, Manila, anybody home?
Demetrius Cox is a retired Naval Officer, active researcher, analyst, commentator, and consultant. He has lived and worked in the Indo-Pacific region for over three decades, and specializes in science, energy, defense, and policy matters. JPR Status: Opinion.