Category Archives: Africa

The Persistent Crisis of Gender-Based Violence: A Political Risk Lens

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 13, No. 7, July 2025

Ni Una Menos march in Buenos Aires on 3 June 2024.

Ni Una Menos march in Buenos Aires on 3 June 2024. Credit: Prensa Obrera via Wikimedia Commons

By Stephanie Wild

The International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women on November 25 served as a reminder of the global crisis of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) and femicide. These issues are not confined to private tragedies but reflect broader governance failures and social instabilities, making them a critical political risk. High rates of SGBV and femicide weaken public trust in institutions, destabilize communities, and impose significant economic costs, all of which threaten national and regional stability.

From January 1st to 31st, 2024 alone, there were 240 femicide cases recorded across 26 different countries. Notably, countries in Africa (and more specifically Southern Africa) and in Latin America (LATAM) consistently report the highest levels of SGBV – often dominating the top ten global lists of rape rates. Those most commonly featured on these lists include South Africa, Lesotho, Botswana, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. In Africa alone, it is estimated that 20,000 women were killed by their partners and ex-partners in 2022. Select states in Latin America and the Caribbean collecting and publishing regular data on femicide, in 2022, at least 4,050 women fell victim to femicide across 26 countries in the region.

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Modelling Country Risk of Zambia

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 12, No. 8, August 2024

Simon Muwando1
University of Lusaka

Victor Gumbo2
University of Botswana

Gelson Tembo3
University of Zambia

 

Abstract

The world has experienced a dramatic increase in the flow of transnational investments following increased internationalization and globalization of firms in the previous decade. Country risk exposure is a cause for concern for all the institutions that are engaged in multinational trade and finance. The main objective of this study was to model the Zambia’s country risk. A mixed method with concurrent research design was employed. An autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on annual data from the 1994 to 2018 period. Country beta was used as a proxy for indicating country risk. The findings of the study revealed that the main determinants of country risk of Zambia in the short run are beta, current account balance, political risk, unemployment rate, and short-term interest rates. In the long run, country risk of Zambia is mainly influenced by current account balance, betas, political risk and unemployment rate. Effective policies need to be implemented by authorities to manage persistent current account deficits and political risk.

Key Terms: country risk; country risk analysis; internationalization; globalization; autoregressive distributed lag; Zambia; globalization

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Political Risk to the Mining Sector in South Africa

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 10, No. 8, August 2022

The image is of Randfontein Mine in Johannesburg, South Africa. Mining equipment dotters the brown landscape against a blue sky.

Randfontein Mine, Johannesburg, November 2014. Source: Paul Raad via Flickr.

Ndzalama Cleopatra Mathebula 
Institute of Risk Management South Africa

Generally defined, political risk is the expected cost or loss incurred by a business due to political decisions, events, and actions. With the evolution of the discipline, it is not only government or organizations that can generate  political risks, but also labour unions and civil society that can emanate risks. The South African mining sector includes abundant political risk yet is an attractive investment destination given its large platinum, gold, and coal reserves.

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Why the UN Fails to Prevent Mass Atrocities

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Violent Incidents and Reporting Bias in the South Kivu region of the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2017 to 2022

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 10, No. 8, August 2022

The image depicts UN forces alongside military equipment and vehicles in Minembwe in South Kivu, DRC.

UN forces in Minembwe, South Kivu taken on 2 April 2019. Source: Delphin Ntanyoma.

Delphin Ntanyoma
Erasmus University

Fidele Sebahizi
Liberty University

Prosper Baseka wa Baseka
Bircham International University

1. Introduction

This study includes preliminary analysis of 324 violent incidents in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) recorded by Kivu Security Tracker (KST) and 29 reports of the United Nations Peacekeeping mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, known as Mission de Nations Unies pour la Stabilisation du Congo (MONUSCO).[1]

Since its creation and deployment in 1999, MONUSCO is now facing unprecedented protests as local populations in Eastern DRC are demanding its immediate withdrawal. Between July 25 and July 26, 2022, protesters from the main cities in North Kivu and South Kivu stormed MONUSCO bases in Beni, Butembo, Goma, and Uvira to express their anger at the 22-year-long UN mission’s failure to stabilize the region.  Following these incidents, including the one that took place at the Uganda-DRC border, it is believed that 32 civilians and 4 peacekeepers died. Continue reading →

Modelling the Country Risk of Zambia

Posted on by Assistant Editor

Journal of Political Risk, Vol. 10, No. 3, March 2022

Figure 1 depicts the international ranking of Zambia in terms of corruption. The graph shows an upward trend between 2001 and 2007, followed by a downward trend until 2015. An upward trend followed between 2015 and 2018.

Simon Muwando
University of Lusaka

Victor Gumbo
University of Botswana

Gelson Tembo
University of Zambia

Abstract

The world has experienced a dramatic increase in the flow of transnational investments following increased internationalization and globalization of firms in the previous decade. Country risk exposure is a cause for concern for all the institutions that are engaged in multinational trade and finance. The main objective of this study is modelling Zambia’s country risk. A mixed method with concurrent research design was employed. Personal interviews were the main instrument for collection of primary data and snowball sampling was used to select the interviewees. Secondary data was collected from the Lusaka Stock Exchange (LSE), Ministry of Finance, Bank of Zambia and Central Statistical Office. An autoregressive distributed lag technique was employed on annual data for the 1994 to 2018 period. This approach was chosen as it works best for small samples. The findings of the study revealed that the short run drivers for country risk of Zambia are beta, current account balance, political risk, unemployment rate and weighted short term interest rates. Current account balance was found to positively affect country risk while beta, political stability, and weighted short term interest rates negatively influence it.  The study findings established that the long run determinants of country risk of Zambia are current account balance, betas, political risk, and unemployment rate. From the study findings, current account balance positively influences country risk of Zambia whereas beta, and political stability negatively influence country risk of Zambia. The study concluded that the major determinant of country risk of Zambia in the short run and long run is current account balance as it has significant positive influence. Effective policies need to be implemented by authorities to manage or reduce persistent current account deficits and political risk, in order to manage country risk.

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